India’s neighbourhood watch, past and present
In some instances, it was New Delhi’s missteps that affected it, while in others, it was a case of events spiralling out of control.
(1) Introduction
India’s geographical location places it at the heart of South Asia, a region characterized by its diversity, socio-political upheavals, and shifting dynamics. India’s role as a regional power has often been tested by the evolving political, economic, and security situations in its neighbourhood. The period between 2008-2010 saw India playing a catalytic role in ushering democratic transitions in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Myanmar. However, as the region faces new challenges in 2024, India’s influence and its ability to manage relations with its neighbours have been called into question. This article seeks to examine India’s engagement with its neighbours from a historical and contemporary perspective, highlighting key developments, challenges, and the lessons India can learn from its past actions.
(2) India’s Role in Democratic Transitions (2008-2010)
During the period from 2008 to 2010, India played a critical role in facilitating democratic transitions across its neighbourhood. India’s diplomacy during this period was characterized by quiet but effective engagement, supporting democratic processes in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and Myanmar.
(i) Bangladesh (2008): India was instrumental in ensuring a smooth transition from military rule to democracy in Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina, who became Prime Minister in 2009, benefited from a massive mandate, particularly from women and youth. India, under the leadership of then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, played a “catalytic” role in ensuring the elections were free from army interference. Over the next decade, India and Bangladesh developed a mutually beneficial partnership, with Hasina’s government showing sensitivity to India’s core interests, especially in terms of cross-border security and connectivity.
(ii) Sri Lanka (2009): The defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 2009 marked the end of a 33-year conflict in Sri Lanka. India’s sustained engagement with Sri Lanka, providing both military and diplomatic support, played a pivotal role in bringing the conflict to an end. While India’s role in this process was not widely acknowledged, the defeat of the LTTE opened up opportunities for closer bilateral relations.
(iii) Maldives (2008): In 2008, India supported the Maldives’ first multi-party democratic elections after three decades of autocratic rule under President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. India helped stabilize the nascent democracy, and over the next decade, the Maldives held three different elections, each bringing in a new president, demonstrating the maturity of its democratic processes.
(iv) Myanmar (2010): After two decades of military rule, Myanmar held elections in 2010, leading to the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party’s (USDP) rise to power. India played a significant role in engaging both the military and pro-democracy forces in Myanmar, balancing its security concerns in the Northeast with its support for democratic governance. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s subsequent release and her party’s victories in the 2015 and 2020 elections indicated progress toward democracy, although this trajectory has since been disrupted.
These developments marked a period of optimism for India’s neighbourhood, with democracy appearing to take root in South Asia. India’s development assistance increased significantly during this period, helping rebuild war-torn regions in Sri Lanka, extend a $1 billion line of credit to Bangladesh, and support connectivity projects in Myanmar.
(3) The Present Situation (2024)
Fast forward to 2024, and the landscape in India’s neighbourhood looks dramatically different. While India’s role as a regional power remains undisputed, several recent developments have posed challenges to its diplomatic and strategic influence.
(i) Bangladesh (2024): The collapse of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 was a major setback for India. Years of political instability, an economic downturn, and a violent suppression of student protests culminated in Hasina’s downfall. India’s failure to engage effectively with Bangladesh’s opposition forces has left it unprepared for this transition. Although India had a strong relationship with Hasina’s government, the collapse raises questions about its over-reliance on individual leaders and its reluctance to engage with other political actors.
(ii) Sri Lanka (2022): Sri Lanka faced its own political crisis in 2022, with mass protests leading to the ousting of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. The economic collapse that triggered these protests was unforeseen by many, including India. However, India responded swiftly, offering a $4 billion bailout package that helped stabilize Sri Lanka’s economy. India’s ability to engage across the political spectrum in Sri Lanka, including with the traditionally anti-India Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), has positioned it well for future developments.
(iii) Maldives (2024): The election of President Mohamed Muizzu in 2024 caught India off-guard. India’s failure to engage with Muizzu’s party before the elections led to a diplomatic misstep, as it had focused too heavily on outgoing President Ibrahim Solih. However, India is now working to build ties with the new government, learning from its past mistake of not engaging with opposition parties in Bangladesh.
(iv) Myanmar (2021): Myanmar’s military coup in 2021 reversed years of democratic progress. The military’s inability to stabilize the country, coupled with the growing strength of opposition and ethnic insurgent groups, has created a volatile situation, spilling over into India’s Northeast. India faces a dilemma: it must balance its security concerns with supporting pro-democracy forces. The situation in Myanmar remains a significant challenge for Indian diplomacy, as it navigates between engaging with the military junta and supporting democratic aspirations.
(v) Afghanistan (2021): The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in 2021 was a significant geopolitical challenge for India. Despite its warnings to the United States, India was excluded from key diplomatic discussions with the Taliban. As a result, India is now working to protect its strategic interests in Afghanistan, balancing engagement with the Taliban while safeguarding its investments in the country.
(vi) Pakistan (2022): The military’s removal of Pakistan’s civilian government in 2022 was yet another example of the fragile nature of democracy in South Asia. India’s relations with Pakistan remain fraught with tension, and the instability in Pakistan has implications for regional security, particularly in Kashmir.
(4) India’s Diplomatic Responses
India’s responses to these developments have been mixed, reflecting both its strengths and limitations as a regional power. In some cases, such as Sri Lanka, India’s swift and decisive actions helped stabilize the situation. In other instances, such as Bangladesh and the Maldives, India’s lack of engagement with opposition forces has left it scrambling to adjust to new political realities.
India has demonstrated its ability to provide crucial financial and developmental assistance to its neighbours, as seen in its bailout package for Sri Lanka and its long-standing investments in Bangladesh. However, India’s diplomatic strategy has been hampered by its over-reliance on individual leaders, its reluctance to engage with opposition forces, and its difficulty in anticipating political upheavals.
(5) Lessons and Way Forward
India’s experiences over the past two decades offer several important lessons for its foreign policy in the neighbourhood:
(i) Diversify Engagement: India needs to build relationships across the political spectrum in its neighbouring countries, rather than relying on individual leaders or parties. This will help mitigate the risks associated with sudden political changes, as seen in Bangladesh and the Maldives.
(ii) Focus on Institutional Ties: Strengthening institutional ties with neighbouring countries, rather than focusing solely on personal relationships with leaders, will provide more stability to India’s foreign policy. Institutional engagements can help maintain continuity in relations, even when governments change.
(iii) Improve Early Warning Mechanisms: India needs to invest in better intelligence and early warning mechanisms to anticipate political and economic crises in its neighbourhood. This will allow India to respond proactively, rather than reactively, to events as they unfold.
(iv) Enhance Developmental Diplomacy: India’s development assistance has been a key tool in its neighbourhood diplomacy. India should continue to expand its developmental projects, focusing on infrastructure, connectivity, and capacity-building initiatives that benefit local populations.
(v) Adapt to Changing Geopolitical Realities: India must be flexible in its approach to evolving geopolitical realities. This includes engaging with regimes like the Taliban in Afghanistan and navigating complex relationships in Myanmar, where the military and ethnic insurgent groups are vying for power.
(6) Conclusion
India’s engagement with its neighbourhood has been marked by successes and setbacks. While the period from 2008 to 2010 saw India playing a crucial role in supporting democratic transitions, the region’s political landscape in 2024 presents new challenges. India’s ability to navigate these challenges will depend on its willingness to adapt, diversify its engagements, and focus on building institutional ties. By learning from its past experiences, India can play a more effective role in fostering stability and development in South Asia.
